Sunday, September 27, 1998

Drought, worms loom over state's fall crops

COLLEGE STATION, Texas (AP) -- Recent tropical showers that have doused large sections of Texas haven't amounted to a puddle in the state's northwestern wheat-and-cattle belt. And crops that have gotten rain are prime targets for an anticipated pest invasion.

"Much of the northwestern part of the state did not receive any of the rainfall, and it is still in the midst of a serious drought," said Carl Anderson, agricultural economist with the Texas Agricultural Extension Service.

Despite heavy rains in southeast, central and south Texas from the two tropical storms that hit this summer, Anderson noted the rest of the state has remained bone dry.

The dry spell this year has caused an estimated $6.9 billion economic impact because of crop, livestock and timber losses. The tally could climb unless more rain blankets the state, particularly drought-stricken West and North Texas.

Winter wheat planting on the state's northwestern plains has been largely stymied by the dusty conditions. Despite rains elsewhere, a predicted infestation of fall armyworms could reduce yields if growers aren't vigilant.

"We expect heavy infestations in wheat and oats in the next five or six weeks in much of East, North and Central Texas," extension service entomologist Clifford Hoelscher said. "Early detection is key because small larvae are much easier to control than large larvae. Producers should also look at getting some protection with insecticides before plant stands are killed or greatly reduced."

Fall armyworms can cause serious damage in one to two days before the damage is even noticed. Hoelscher recommends that farmers diligently inspect their fields for the night-feeding larvae.

The worms, combined with the drought, not only threaten grain farmers but also cattle raisers whose herds rely on wheat crops for grazing during the winter.

"If rain does not begin to fall soon, ranchers will not only suffer substantial grazing losses, but 1999 wheat yields could also be adversely affected," said extension economist Mark Waller. Approximately 1 million acres of winter wheat in the rolling plains between San Angelo and Childress could be drought-impaired.

"We need six inches of rain and then need another rain after that," entomologist Emory Boring said. "We're a long way from coming out of the drought."

The news isn't bad for all ranchers. Grimes County, 75 miles north of Houston, ranks 10th in the state in the number of beef cattle and was drenched by up to a foot of rain after Tropical Storm Frances. Winter pastures should be lush, county extension agent Rodney Finch said, though stock tanks are still low.

Hay pastures have greened up wherever the rain fell, though Waller added that production hasn't rebounded yet.

"With hay reserves depleted, many ranchers will still have a difficult time finding enough forage to feed their cattle through the winter," Waller said.

Meanwhile, Anderson said the Texas cotton crop is estimated at 3 million bales, the smallest since 1989.

"Much of the dryland crop was lost before harvest," he said. "Yields on remaining dryland are poor, and the quality is below normal. Irrigated acreage will account for about two-thirds of the production."

The tropical storms did benefit the Rio Grande Valley with what extension economist Jason Johnson called "drought-denting rain."

"I can't say the drought is over, but our situation has improved dramatically since the middle of August," he said. The capacity of the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs along the Rio Grande have increased from 19 percent to 33 percent, providing irrigation water for fall vegetables.

Improved soil moisture will help the region's 40 varieties of vegetable. The region ranks sixth in the nation for onion production and second in cabbage.