Tuesday, March 24, 1998

Wool outlook appears to be a hard row to hoe

By J.T. Smith / Farm Editor

When it comes to counting sheep, the numbers pretty well say it all.

In 1991, there were 11.2 million sheep in the United States. By 1998, that number had plunged to 7.6 million.

If you want to go back a bit more, consider that there were 56 million sheep in the United States in 1942.

Dr. Chris Lupton said the more recent decline is not simply a cut back in numbers by various sheep operations in the United States.

"In 1988, there were 112,000 (farm) operators who had sheep," he noted. "By 1997, only 75,000 operators had sheep."

So the decline clearly reflects some folks who have gotten out of the business all together in the last 10 years or so, Lupton observes.

Lupton, now based at the Texas A&M Research and Extension Center in San Angelo, is a native of England where he studied at Leeds University.

Global stockpile of wool depresses market

As Dr. Lupton sees it, the industry must first market the wool it has before much recovery can be made.

Speaking at the annual Agri-Plex Ag Day in Ballinger the past week, Lupton said that Australia peaked in numbers in 1990 with 175 million sheep.

What's more - Australia had about 4 million bales of wool stockpiled in Australian warehouses by 1991.

That had gradually been reduced down to 1.2 million bales of wool by 1998 - but Lupton notes that it took seven years to get the supply down to that level.

In his own homeland, the numbers of U.K. sheep have gone from 29.8 million to 27.8 million this decade - fairly stable.

The former Soviet Union countries - on the other hand - plunged from having 133 million sheep in 1991 to 63 million in 1997.

There's not as much use of wool by those countries today as when the Soviet bloc of nations existed.

"The countries of the former Soviet Union actually ate a lot of their sheep (during transition)," Lupton noted.

Meanwhile, China has increased its own sheep numbers, so the Chinese are not needing to import as much wool at the moment, Lupton reported.

India? Can't figure their sheep.

"They really don't have good statistics," Lupton noted.

Meanwhile, New Zealand is concentrating more on producing lamb for meat consumption than wool production from sheep. So you may see a wool decline there.

Wool is a niche market compared with cotton

In the United States, the annual per capita consumption of wool fiber amounts to 1.2 pounds.

That compares with 32.5 pounds per person for cotton.

So although wool is a just a niche market in the big picture - compared with cotton or even synthetic fibers - it still has been an important industry in parts of Texas.

But it is clear that Australia and other parts of the world will have the big impact on Texas' wool industry.

Mohair may seen a upturn

Those with Angora goats haven't had much to brag about either.

The mohair market has been a tough nut to crack.

"There's no demand for adult hair," Lupton lamented.

Subsequently, the United States has gone from 2 million Angora goats in 1992 to 855,000 hair goats today.

While he can't say when the market will reappear for adult hair, Lupton reports that there is a market for kid hair.

In fact, Lupton went out on a limb and forecast a resurgence in demand for kid hair.

Lupton predicts that by Fall '98, kid hair could reach $7 per pound.