Friday, August 28, 1998

Centrists hold key to Clinton's fate

By WILLIAM McKENZIE

Dallas Morning News

DALLAS - It is hard to know exactly where Bill Clinton's crippled presidency heads next. But here is one clue: watch Congress' moderate Republicans and centrist Democrats. Along with public opinion polls, they could determine Clinton's fate.

Moderate Republicans and centrist Democrats represent an influential swing vote in Congress. They aren't powerful enough to control their parties. But their less partisan approach to politics gives them an independence that many Capitol Hill legislators lack. Their voices matter on big issues because of their self-reliance and quiet manner.

The fact is everyone expects noisy Republicans like House Majority Whip Tom DeLay of Texas to denounce the president and ask for his resignation. And most Congress watchers assume partisan Democrats like John Conyers of Michigan will attack Clinton's critics. What is new there?

But the positions that centrists in both parties take on the president's plight will be more revealing. Clinton's end could be near if they start seriously knocking him.

And not just because their independent streak gives their opinions weight. The president also needs the two groups to govern.

Moderate Republicans and centrist Democrats are part of the center-right coalition that has led America for the past two decades. Legislation often doesn't get passed without them. Clinton has needed centrists especially on social, budget and trade issues. If he loses their support, he could be sunk.

Yet Clinton's presidency also could be saved if these "swing agents" give him some leeway. He may survive if they and the public don't put the meat cleaver in him.

So, what are some moderate Republicans and centrist Democrats saying after Dark Monday?

Democratic Rep. Paul McHale of Pennsylvania has been the only one to ask the president to resign. Texas Rep. Charles Stenholm, a longtime House conservative Democratic leader, expressed strong feelings about the president's moral behavior but said Congress must wait until Kenneth Starr provides the body with his findings.

Sen. John Breaux, an influential centrist Democrat from Louisiana, said he thought Clinton should have left Starr out of his remarks last Monday. But Breaux also said the president's "admission that he was solely and completely responsible was the right thing to do."

Sen. Joseph Lieberman, who chairs the centrist Democratic Leadership Council that Bill Clinton once led, issued no statement. What will he do next? The Connecticut senator's voice carries weight because he almost was alone among Democrats in pressing the White House on its 1996 campaign finance practices. Other legislators respect his independence.

Moderate Republican Sen. John Chafee issued a strong rebuke, especially when one considers his reputation for restraint and his work with the Clinton White House on crafting a 1994 health care compromise. The Yankee Republican termed the president's behavior "deplorable."

The veteran Rhode Island senator said Congress should await Starr's report before issuing further judgments. But he added that "it is extremely inappropriate for a person in authority to engage in such behavior with a subordinate. For any person in a leadership position to participate in such activities with an intern demonstrates grievously bad judgment."

Ouch. That is like having a revered grandfather call you a scoundrel.

Rep. Chris Shays had no statement last week. But will he keep quiet for long? The Connecticut Republican's stands on reforming campaign finance laws have made him a key swing vote.

Rep. Nancy Johnson, another Connecticut Republican, served on the House committee that tackled Newt Gingrich's ethical lapses. She said "the president's reckless behavior showed extraordinarily bad judgment." But she didn't call for his resignation. She simply said that "I hope his testimony and public admission will help move this difficult matter toward a final conclusion."

Telephone calls to several other Democratic and Republican centrists yielded similar responses. Some moderates are disgusted, but there is no clear movement yet toward impeachment or calls for resignation.

Still, watch this crowd. Congress is out of session. But events will move again come September. The interpretation this group gives those events could determine Bill Clinton's future.

William McKenzie is a Dallas Morning News editorial writer and columnist. Readers may write to him at the Dallas Morning News, Communications Center, Dallas, TX 75265.

Knight Ridder/Tribune Services