Sunday, December 20, 1998

Impeachment won't end this sordid affair

And so it has come to pass that Bill Clinton is the second president in U.S. history to be impeached by the House of Representatives. It is a solemn occasion for America that we have come to this, for whatever reasons.

The president's impeachment by the Republican-controlled House, however, is not the end of the sordid Clinton-Lewinsky affair, which is what most Americans have wished for. Instead, it's only the beginning of another round of partisan posturing and political recriminations that will be self-perpetuating ad nauseum and whose fallout will continue for generations.

First, there is to be a trial in the Senate, presided over by Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist, to determine whether to remove Clinton from office. If you thought the O.J. Simpson murder trial was a circus, you'd better run for cover. A Senate trial -- featuring Monica Lewinsky, Linda Tripp, Kenneth Starr, et al., appearing as witnesses -- will probably take months and could go on indefinitely, perhaps into the beginning of the 2000 presidential campaign. Besides the daily spectacle of such an occurrence, the Senate -- whether it kicks Clinton out or censures him or ultimately dismisses the whole matter -- will simply be unable to give the kind of attention it should to pressing national issues like Social Security, Medicare and health care, issues we can ill afford to postpone.

Effect on 2000 election

Second, Clinton's impeachment, in the face of national opinion polls that show most Americans felt otherwise, could have a volatile effect on the 2000 presidential election. House Republicans, who disregarded those polls to their detriment in last November's election, seem to think voters won't hold Clinton's impeachment against the party. But if Clinton retains public support nationwide, voters might well turn against the Republican nominee in 2000 -- who could easily be Gov. George W. Bush -- in order to get even. Plus, if the Senate removes Clinton from office, Democratic Vice President Al Gore would become president and enjoy the advantages of running for re-election as an incumbent. And the next president, whoever he or she is, will be forced to endure more scrutiny of his or her personal life than most of us could tolerate.

Third, many Republicans apparently consider Clinton's impeachment to be payback for past Democratic offenses. Democrats won't let the matter rest here. When they have the opportunity, they will extract their revenge. Then Republicans will counter, and Democrats will answer that attack, and back and forth there will likely be for years an escalation of harsher, more acrimonious partisanship that will make the divisiveness we have seen in recent times look tame. The quality of government will deteriorate, and the American people will suffer.

No one knows which way the fickle stock market will jump, but one thing is certain: Clinton's impeachment is not the end of anything, but just another step in the continuing polarization of our national life.