Saturday, June 20, 1998

U.N. must still monitor Iraq's weapons cache

Richard Butler, the chief U.N. arms inspector in Iraq, is no patsy. He has faced down Saddam Hussein and withstood the subtle importunings of France and Russia that sanctions against Iraq have gone on long enough.

So when he says the U.N. arms inspections could be wrapped up in August and sanctions lifted by October, that is truly significant news. Being an Australian, he was probably unaware his choice of words was unfortunate for Americans inured to extravagantly optimistic government promises during Vietnam: "The light at the end of the tunnel today is more visible than anytime."

As the price of ending the Gulf War, Iraq committed to destroying all of its weapons of mass destruction -- chemical, biological and nuclear -- and the means of producing and delivering them, all to be verified by U.N. inspectors.

What followed was evasion and deceit by the Iraqi regime, and a process that was to have taken six months has now lasted more than seven years -- and so have the U.N. sanctions. Until the U.N. Security Council is satisfied, Iraq cannot sell its oil other than a token amount for humanitarian needs.

The White House has responded to Butler's comments with appropriate skepticism. The burden of proof must be on the Iraqis. If Butler is right, the huge American military buildup in the Gulf this year -- 44,000 troops, two carriers and a land-based air armada at a cost of $600 million that forced the Iraqis to capitulate on inspections -- will have been worth it. Unfortunately, a total military stand-down in the Gulf would be risky.

Insuring the weapons, factories and delivery systems are gone is only half the process. The U.N. must insist on a monitoring system in place to insure that Saddam Hussein, once again flush with cash, doesn't try to rebuild his terror arsenal. Under Saddam, Iraq has attacked four of its neighbors. If Saddam thought he could attack with impunity, it's a safe guess he would do so again.