Monday, November 9, 1998

Party of impeachment stubs its toe

By Donald Kaul

A funny thing happened to the Republican Party on its way to a landslide victory Tuesday.

The American people.

Despite its being an off-year election, when the president's party is expected to lose two dozen or more seats in the House; despite the fact that Republican candidates got $100 million more from corporate sponsors than Democrats did; despite the fact that Democrats were supposedly demoralized by the Monica Lewinsky scandal while Republicans were energized, the Republicans actually managed to lose seats in the House of Representatives. It was the first time such a thing had happened since 1934, when voters were still blaming Republicans for getting them into the Depression.

Any time you generalize about the American electorate, you're skating on pretty thin ice. It's a big, diverse, complex country. Still, it's possible, I think, to discern a message from the voters in Tuesday's elections: "Stop with the sex, lies and videotape, already. Do something useful."

In the end it was the Republican voter who seemed demoralized and passive, and the Democrats - driven by a union-financed get-out-the-vote campaign - who showed up at the polls in sufficient numbers to win close race after close race.

There were even hints the Democrats might be reconstituting the coalition that allowed them to dominate national politics for roughly the middle third of this century. Some of the white working class that had left the party during the civil rights and social revolutions of the '60s and '70s, began to edge back to the party, joined by increasing numbers of blacks, Hispanics, women, Jews.

One probably should be cautious about making that assessment. While the Democrats did much, much better than expected, they didn't exactly carry the day. Republicans still elected a majority of the House of Representatives and maintained a firm hold on the Senate. Democrats are in roughly the position England was in after the evacuation of their troops from Dunkirk early in World War II. It was a great escape, but as Winston Churchill pointed out, wars are won by great victories, not great escapes.

Still, the Democrats have to be much cheered by the results, while Republicans are beginning to point fingers at one another, assessing blame.

I should think the task would be easy. Ken Starr is to blame, for filing so salaciously detailed a report on the President's leisure-time activity, a blunder then compounded by the Republican majority, which released it unedited. It was at that moment, I think, that the disgust the people felt for Bill Clinton's actions was overwhelmed by the disgust they felt for the Republican Congress.

Now the Republicans are arguing over whether they should continue on the road that won them Congress in 1994 - emphasizing opposition to abortion, gays, flag desecration and the like - or follow the lead of their brilliantly successful corps of governors, like the Bush brothers, in crafting a broader, more inclusive message for the voters.

That would seem like an easy decision too, but you can never tell about Republicans. Never underestimate their ability to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

It could be their best chance lies with Clinton himself. If he has shown one characteristic, it is the inability to handle prosperity. Every time he confounds the Republicans and is riding high, he finds some way to screw it up. It's maddening. I wouldn't be surprised if he's eyeing the office staff right now, thinking about inviting one of the new girls in for pizza. The man is incorrigible. His ability to get out of trouble is exceeded only by his talent for getting into it.

I had to laugh when Henry Hyde, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee in charge of holding impeachment hearings, denied the election would make a difference in the inquiry. Right.

The next day he said he was thinking about making Ken Starr his only witness. In other words, he's saying to Starr: "You got us into this mess, wise guy, now it's up to you to convince the American people the president deserves impeachment. If you can do it, more power to you; but if you can't, adios chump."

I don't think even right-wing Republicans are dumb enough to string this thing out after Tuesday's election.

E-mail Donald Kaul at otcoffee@aol.com or write to him c/o Tribune Media Services. Inc., 435 N. Michigan Ave., Suite 1400, Chicago, IL 60611.