Saturday, September 26, 1998

Politics blocks early Clinton decision

By Morton Kondracke

The videotapes leave no doubt President Clinton perjured himself before the Starr grand jury, so Congress ought to be able to reach a quick decision on whether to impeach and oust him. But it won't, of course.

Clinton plainly lied when he said, "I did not have sexual relations (with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky), as I understood this term to be defined." Her testimony - unchallenged by Clinton - shows that he did.

What remains to be decided is whether this perjury meets the constitutional standard for impeachment. That should take weeks, not months.

Republicans, though, seem bent on dragging the impeachment process on past the November election and into next year, hoping to maximize their strength in Congress and state capitals and to keep the administration crippled.

And the White House, even though it's pushing for a quick censure vote, is contributing to delay by sticking to Clinton's ridiculous claim that he had a "sexual relationship" with Lewinsky but never had "sexual relations" with her. Any slim hope for a quick end requires the truth from Clinton.

Admittedly, it will be difficult for the House to do more than authorize a full Judiciary Committee inquiry into Clinton's possible impeachment before Congress recesses in early October. But unless new evidence develops, there's no reason why Judiciary can't quickly draw up impeachment counts, vote on them and send them to the full House for a vote by the end of November.

There are other offenses to be considered, including Clinton's coaching of his secretary, Betty Currie, but the committee does not need to conduct a thorough investigation of its own. It can just hear from independent counsel Kenneth Starr and Clinton's side.

If the House doesn't vote by the end of the year, it'll be a sure sign the GOP is stalling. The 105th Congress will end and the work done this year will have to be repeated by the 106th Congress.

Delaying the vote also would be a sign that the GOP wants to act when it has more votes than it does now. Even Democratic experts are forecasting a GOP pickup of more than five House seats, and some fear it could be 20. The new Senate may have between two and five more Republicans.

The Senate, being a continuing body, could hold a trial next year on impeachment articles voted by the House this year, although if the House acts with dispatch, the whole Clinton impeachment matter could be - and should be - decided this year so the next Congress could get on to other business facing the country.

Anyway, if various news reports are correct, House GOP leaders have already decided in their own minds that Clinton ought to be impeached.

According to these reports, Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, is not freelancing when he agitates for impeachment; he's just playing bad cop to Speaker Newt Gingrich's, R-Ga., good cop.

Gingrich and House Judiciary Chairman Henry Hyde, R-Ill., have said in the past it would take "multiple felonies" and a bipartisan consensus to impeach Clinton, but the signs show they are ready to act on a party-line basis.

Meantime, Democrats are talking up quick-end scenarios, but one top Congressional leadership staffer said "if the videotaped testimony had been bad enough, we might have been able to get rid of Clinton. But what we're in for now is a long, slow decline. The likely end game is 'censure-plus' - but after the election."

The White House wants a committee of "graybeards" headed by attorney Lloyd Cutler to broker a fast censure-plus deal with the GOP and Starr whereby Clinton would apologize, pay a fine, be allowed to stay in office and be freed from the threat of prosecution.

Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., has suggested Clinton appear before the House Judiciary Committee to shorten the process, though it's not clear what he'd say that was different from the lies he told the grand jury.

Yet another idea being floated is for House Democratic leaders to demand an early up-or-down vote on impeachment, anticipating Republicans will reject it and Democrats can go to the voters saying the GOP is dragging out the process.

White House advisers think they see in after-video poll results the seeds of a political backlash against the GOP.

Indeed, some polls indicate Clinton's approval ratings went up after Monday's video show, and an ABC News poll shows that by 62 to 34 percent, the public disapproves of Congress' handling of the Lewinsky case.

The general public may not want Clinton driven from office, but polls show Republican voters do. So, politics makes it likely that the painful, ugly impeachment process will go on and on.

Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.

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