Saturday, February 28, 1998

Clinton's ratings cloud GOP hopes

By Morton Kondracke

President Clinton's political fortunes someday may collapse under the weight of scandal evidence, but right now they are soaring and probably will climb higher with the facing down of Saddam Hussein.

Even though Saddam surely will eventually violate his promise to admit United Nations weapons inspectors, Clinton will achieve an immediate poll boost for forcing Saddam to capitulate. Clinton's apparent victory in the Persian Gulf -- even if it's temporary -- is a rebuke to critics, mainly Republicans, who said he had no strategy and had done a bad job explaining his policy.

A CBS/New York Times poll conducted prior to the Gulf deal showed 64 percent of the public thought Clinton had explained his policy clearly enough that they understood why the United States might bomb Iraq -- 12 percent more than said they understood George Bush's policy before the Persian Gulf War.

More important politically, the Gulf success is evidence that Clinton is focused on his job and doing it well, which is the basis of his high approval ratings.

The new CBS poll contains data that have to cheer Democrats and dispirit the president's enemies. It's also depressing to those (like me) who think a president should set a high moral tone for the country.

The poll, conducted Feb. 19 to 21, shows Clinton's job approval rating at 68 percent, down 5 points since CBS's previous poll Feb. 17 -- points that the Iraqi settlement probably will restore when a new poll is taken.

Asked what the main reason is for approving Clinton's performance, respondents said the major factor was that he is "doing his job" and "staying focused."

A record 75 percent approve his handling of the economy, and 61 percent support his foreign policy.

If public satisfaction with Clinton and the state of the nation continue until November, the chances are that Republicans will make only modest congressional gains -- scoring nothing like the wipeout that the GOP hopes (and Democrats fear) the Monica Lewinsky scandal will produce.

To sustain their hopes, Republicans are relying on the gap that turns up in many polls between Clinton's job approval ratings and his personal approval.

Ultimately, of course, Republicans are hoping independent counsel Kenneth Starr will come up with evidence of misdeeds -- lying and possible perjury and obstruction of justice -- that will cripple Clinton politically and take Democrats down with him.

That's why the CBS poll has to be discouraging for Republicans. It shows Clinton can be found to have committed almost any offense he's accused of and get away with it.

The poll's crucial question was, "If it turns out that President Clinton obstructed justice by encouraging Monica Lewinsky to lie, or by lying under oath himself, what do you think should happen?"

A near majority, 46 percent, said Clinton should simply admit and apologize for his conduct, and another 16 percent said the whole matter should be dropped -- for a total of 62 percent saying that no serious consequences should ensue.

Only 12 percent said Congress should impeach Clinton, and 21 percent said he should resign. Astoundingly, 49 percent of Republicans said Clinton should get away with no more than an apology, while 48 percent said he should be forced from office.

The split among Republicans is reflected in the behavior of GOP politicians. Members of Congress, nine months from election, are speaking very carefully about the scandal. Presidential candidates are freer with criticism.

On other poll questions, 57 percent of the public said Clinton's "political enemies" are primarily to blame for the scandal, compared with 33 percent who blame Clinton. By 59 to 27 percent, the public says Starr is "partisan," not "impartial." Even a plurality of Republicans believes he's partisan.

Fifty percent of the public would like to see Starr's investigation dropped, while 45 percent want it to continue. Sixty-four percent -- including 53 percent of Republicans -- say the public doesn't need to know what kind of relationship Clinton had with Lewinsky.

Demonstrating -- thank heavens -- that the public has not lost all sense of morality, 61 percent do think it's important to know whether Clinton encouraged Lewinsky to lie.

The upshot of these numbers is that Starr and Republicans have an enormous problem making a case against Clinton that will stain Democratic candidates as well.

It's not impossible, of course. Starr might find strong proof of obstruction of justice, which the House Judiciary Committee could work up into a politically damaging case against Democrats.

But the poll suggests if it's just a matter of sex and lying about it, a 59 percent majority of Americans will forgive -- including 60 percent of Republicans.

And this is even before the performance, rivaling Richard Nixon's Checkers speech, in which Clinton solemnly asks for forgiveness with his wife, Hillary, standing at his side.

Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.

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