Saturday, September 19, 1998

Clinton needs a ‘Kissinger' for crisis

By Morton Kondracke

Fending off impeachment is not the kind of presidential disability envisioned by those who wrote the 25th Amendment, but it is time for Vice President Al Gore to step in and manage U.S. foreign policy.

So many serious international problems are worsening simultaneously that one expert -- Fareed Zakaria, managing editor of Foreign Affairs -- asserts that "there's an unraveling of world order."

Another expert, Peter Rodman of the Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom, points out that President Clinton lacks anyone under him with the international prestige of Henry Kissinger, Secretary of State and National Security Adviser during then-President Richard Nixon's Watergate crisis.

So somebody needs to be in charge of making policy and intervening forcefully. If Clinton can't do it because he's fighting for his political life, then Gore is the logical person. If Clinton is forced out of office, performing as informal "acting President" for foreign policy will be good training for the next president.

White House aides insist Clinton is giving foreign problems adequate attention and that there's more progress in several crisis areas than critics appreciate.

They say much-criticized U.S. policies were vindicated by last week's unanimous United Nations Security Council vote strengthening sanctions on Iraq and by North Korea's agreement to take part in missile-control and other peace talks.

Recently, Clinton made major international economic policy proposals -- an outgrowth of his recent trip to Russia -- at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Political advisers acknowledge Clinton's activity is designed in part to "change the subject" from independent counsel Kenneth Starr's report and show "he's doing his job" as a means of bolstering his approval ratings.

Still, unless dramatic improvements suddenly occur on a broad range of international fronts, Clinton is bound to be accused of being distracted, worsening both his domestic political position and his international clout.

"The problems out there require the kind of involvement only a president can give," says Zakaria. "They require major rallying or, sometimes, bullying. Right now, American foreign policy is on autopilot."

Rodman, Kissinger's aide during Watergate, said, "Nixon benefited from the fact that foreigners didn't believe he could really lose power. What's more, he had a reputation for being fierce, and with Kissinger there was a sense of power being wielded by someone formidable.

"People overseas weren't afraid of Clinton beforehand and the current team is not so impressive."

The problems include a world economic meltdown spreading from Asia to Russia to Latin America to the U.S. stock market.

With the world crisis battering U.S. markets, various experts think the U.S. president should be doing one or more of the following: cajoling Japan into reforming its economy; calling a special summit of the G-7 economic powers; and/or proposing a major revamping of international economic institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, established at the Bretton Woods Conference of 1944.

A globalized economy requires an international equivalent of the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission and bankruptcy courts, but no such structures exist.

Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin and his deputy, Larry Summers, have been trying to contain the crisis that started in Asia, but Clinton has been only intermittently involved. Even if Clinton proposes a "new Bretton Woods," he will be late -- and the idea may be written off as an economic "Wag the Dog."

Elsewhere, so many places seem out of U.S. control that "the world's only superpower" looks like it's being wagged, rather than wagging.

Even if the U.N. has strengthened sanctions, Saddam Hussein has halted weapons inspections. Even if North Korea is talking, it's also digging in to construct a new nuclear complex and firing missiles over Japan. Serbs are committing ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, ignoring U.S. threats to use force. Russia has turned, for a prime minister, to a hard-line former Communist who's made a career of opposing U.S. interests. The Arab-Israeli peace process is bogged down, with U.S. prestige diminished because of threats Secretary of State Madeleine Albright made toward Israel that she backed down from.

Aides insist Clinton, even though he never attends National Security Council meetings, stays in touch daily with foreign policy by conferring with National Security Adviser Sandy Berger. "During his trip to Russia and Ireland, you couldn't tell for a minute that he had a scandal hanging over his head," one aide said.

The aides point out, as evidence of Clinton's role, the Irish peace accord. "The Irish and British all agree, this could not have been done without him."

That's undoubtedly true. Clinton may be the first president in history to win the Nobel Peace Prize and face removal from office in the same year. Still, lacking a Kissinger, Clinton needs someone to be in charge during this period of political disability. His veep is it.

Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.

Newspaper Enterprise Assn.