Sunday, October 18, 1998

'98 election won't be about Clinton

By Morton Kondracke

Everyone who hoped, feared or predicted the Monica Lewinsky case would dominate the November election campaign may be proved wrong.

In a sense it's unfortunate: The outcome of the elections may well determine Clinton's fate in the impeachment process, but there's no sign either Democrats or Republicans plan to make it the central issue of their campaigning over the next three weeks.

Republicans, if they score big gains -- the expectations-game standard now is at 15 House seats and five Senate seats -- may well declare they have a mandate to impeach Clinton, but they don't plan to openly seek one on the hustings.

Democrats, more understandably, seem eager to get back to their standard issues of education, Social Security, health care and the environment, rather than make the election about Clinton.

Neither party has scheduled a national advertising campaign touting the Lewinsky scandal or impeachment as the reason to support its candidates, and only a few desperate candidates seem to be planning to use either theme in their own campaigns.

One top party pro who didn't want to be identified by affiliation admitted, "We've overestimated the impact of this issue. The Lewinsky case has drowned out everything else for months, and it's done some damage to Democrats.

"But the conventional wisdom that it will dominate the campaigns may be conventional, but it isn't wise. In fact, it's going to dissipate as an issue as people get back home. People are sick of it. It's certainly in the background, but there is no evidence that it cuts one way or another."

This analysis is a far cry from the one officials in both parties -- and observers like me -- have been enunciating over the past two months, when it's seemed certain the scandal would swell GOP turnout, discourage Democrats and produce a rout on Nov. 3.

The scandal certainly has torpedoed former Democratic hopes for significant House gains, but the terror that set in among party leaders in August -- that it would cost 20 House seats -- has disappeared.

Counters in both parties now are estimating a GOP pickup of between 5 and 12 House seats -- not enough to declare a mandate to drive Clinton from office.

GOP prospects in the Senate are much better. Both sides say a five-seat pickup -- and a filibuster-proof majority -- is entirely possible, but it's hard to say that's entirely Monica-related.

What's changed the atmosphere is that Democrats rallied back from despair and formed new battle lines around the argument that House GOP treatment of Clinton was unfair.

The White House and Democratic congressional leaders succeeded in holding House Democrats together on the impeachment inquiry vote -- losing only 31 members when it appeared up to 70 might defect.

One White House aide crowed: "Republicans executed their political strategy and it failed. They teed this issue up before the election to put as many Democrats as possible in an uncomfortable position. They thought they could divide the party, but they didn't."

The White House's major weapon in keeping Democrats in line is the polls, which uniformly show the public doesn't trust Clinton but doesn't want him thrown out of office, either.

Polls surveying adults or registered voters, like those conducted by CBS or CNN/Gallup/USA Today, show Clinton's job approval ratings remain in the 60s, that a majority wants him censured, but that by margins ranging from 60 percent to 72 percent, the public opposes either impeachment or resignation.

According to CBS, adults by 55 percent to 40 percent opposed the impeachment inquiry just voted by the House, and according to CBS, voters disapprove of the Republicans' handling of the impeachment process by a margin of 58 percent to 34 percent.

Even the Zogby International poll of likely voters -- the most accurate in the country in the 1996 elections -- shows Clinton has a 55 percent favorable job performance rating.

His personal approval/disapprovals are 47 percent to 49 percent and by 47 percent to 36 percent, voters declare they are "ashamed" rather than "proud" to have him as president.

If a candidate supports Clinton, 34 percent of voters are less likely to vote for him or her, while 16 percent are more likely, and 47 percent say it makes no difference. That's why Democrats are unlikely to talk much about Clinton.

On the other hand, asked what the best possible outcome of the Clinton-Lewinsky affair is, 51 percent favor solutions short of his ouster ranging from no punishment (37 percent) through censure (11 percent) and a fine (13 percent), while 22 percent favor resignation and 15 percent, impeachment.

Most significantly, when asked whether they would support a member of Congress who voted for impeachment, only 18 percent said they were more likely and 30 percent, less.

When asked whether they would support a member who voted against impeachment, 27 percent were more likely and 20 percent less likely.

All these numbers strongly suggest that -- barring new revelations -- we won't hear much from the hustings about Monica and Clinton over the next three weeks.

Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.

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