Sunday, November 22, 1998

Election shows parties dead even

By Morton Kondracke

More than "status quo," the label that the 1998 elections deserve is "parity." The two parties now have equal loyalty among U.S. voters, setting 2000 up to be a crucial, fascinating contest.

What's been disproved -- for now -- is that GOP victories in 1994 represented part of a "great partisan realignment" shifting majority-party status to the Republicans.

That idea is almost as dead as the once-certain GOP "lock" on the presidency owing to conservative proclivities in the South and the West. There has been a realignment away from Democratic majority-party status, but for the moment, the movement has stopped.

According to 1998 exit polls, 37 percent of voters described themselves as Democrats, 36 percent as Republicans and 27 percent as independents.

The way they actually voted for House seats gave the Republicans a 500,000-vote advantage overall in the 435 races, but in the 341 contested races, Democrats came out 900,000 ahead out of 53 million votes cast.

According to elections expert Mark Gersh of the National Committee for an Effective Congress, the election was so close that a shift of only 9,500 votes in the six narrowest-winning new GOP seats would have given Democrats control of the House. A shift of 23,300 votes in five districts that went Democratic, meantime, would have allowed Republicans to lose no seats and keep their former 11-seat majority.

The exit polling shows it's certainly true voters no longer favor Democrats in House races, but they don't tilt Republican either.

In the 1990 midterm elections, Democrats enjoyed a 5 percent advantage in House voting. In 1994, the GOP had a 5-point advantage.

But in 1996, the parties split the House vote 50-50, and this year the GOP had an advantage of only 2 percent -- and zero in contested districts.

According to Gersh, the Democrats' top House elections analyst, his party gained five seats this year owing to these factors: Traditionally Democratic seats were wrested back from the GOP, Democrats ran conservative candidates in conservative districts, and Republicans ran candidates too right-wing for their districts.

The issue environment also favored Democrats -- a function of Democratic leaders' success in framing issues and GOP failure. Exit polls show only 31 percent of voters were most concerned about the two issues on which Republicans are favored as problem-solvers -- the nation's moral climate and taxes -- while 52 percent named education, jobs, Social Security and health care, where Democrats have a lopsided advantage.

The polling shows the Monica Lewinsky scandal didn't sway many voters, but some analysts think it did harm Democrats in another way: When it broke last winter, it prevented Democrats from recruiting their best candidates in some winnable districts.

"If it hadn't been for Lewinsky, we'd be looking at a Democratic majority now," said one Democratic official.

Democrats also give credit for the pickup to decisions made by Rep. Martin Frost (Texas), who as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee kept the DCCC staff at election-year strength throughout the cycle, giving Democrats a head start in recruiting, candidate training and fund raising.

The labor movement was crucial in turning out its members and getting them to vote Democratic. A whopping 23 percent of the electorate has a union member in the household, compared with 14 percent in 1994, and they voted 64 to 33 percent Democratic. Black turnout helped Democrats win key statewide races in Georgia, Maryland, Alabama, North Carolina and South Carolina, but wasn't crucial in the closest House races.

A bigger factor was the time when voters made up their minds whom to support. According to GOP pollster Neil Newhouse, those making up their minds on Election Day favored Democrats by 57 to 41 percent, as did those who decided in the last week, 52 to 46 percent.

The GOP's late attempt to make the Lewinsky scandal an issue -- seized upon by Democrats for a counterattack -- may account for that trend, as well as superior Democratic get-out-the-vote activities.

There's no question the 1990s have been a good decade for Republicans and a bad one for Democrats except at the presidential level.

Since 1991, governorships have shifted from 28 Democratic, 20 Republican and 2 independent to 17 Democratic, 31 Republican and 2 independent, with the GOP controlling nine of the 10 biggest states and governing two-thirds of the nation's people.

In 1991, Democrats controlled 73 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers. Post-1998, they'll have 52. They had 57 senators in 1991 and now have 45. They had 258 House seats in 1991, and now they have 211.

The 2000 election will decide who controls U.S. politics for the next decade. The new president is likely to bring in a House of his party. Of the 19 Republican and 14 Democratic senators facing re-election in 2000, six Republicans and seven Democrats were elected in 1994 by less than 55 percent.

Republicans have a good chance to extend their advantage in governorships, with eight Democratic seats in play over the next two years versus only four Republican. State legislatures chosen in 2000, of course, will redistrict the House after the 2000 Census.

Ultimately what counts most is who the candidates are, what they stand for and what's on the voters' minds. Right now, moderate voters are in command, accounting for 50 percent of the electorate compared to 19 percent who call themselves liberal and 31 percent conservative.

In 1998, moderates split 55 to 45 percent for Democrats in House races but 52 to 48 percent for Republicans in governorship races. The bottom line is that the parties are virtually tied, and the future is up for grabs.

Morton Kondracke is executive editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.

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