Wednesday, February 18, 1998

Pray for success, plan for failure

For a politician prone to drifting into policy wonk mode, President Clinton on Tuesday delivered a clear and direct explanation of what's at stake in Iraq.

Saddam Hussein must allow United Nations inspectors "free and unfettered access" so they can carry out their mission, the president told the American public, or the United States will attack.

He left no room for wobbling. If Hussein is allowed to horde his remaining aresnal of chemical and biological weapons, Clinton said, "some day, some way, I guarantee you he'll use that arsenal."

New public opinion polls this week reveal the unsurprising: Americans prefer a "diplomatic solution." Who on earth doesn't? But the diplomatic track means nothing if there's not a threat at the end of the tunnel.

An 11th-hour diplomatic settlement is possible, but Saddam has reneged on every other agreement and probably would on any new one as well, bringing the United States and its reluctant U.N. allies back to where we are now, on the eve of a military strike.

For all its clarity, Clinton's speech left unanswered one enormous question that's at the heart of Americans' ambivalence about the situation: What happens if diplomacy fails and military action doesn't work?

What happens if, after the the air assault concludes, Saddam Hussein crawls from the Baghdad rubble and waves to the TV cameras?

If Saddam then persists in rebuilding his arsenal, the president says we will hit him again. Perhaps. But support for that policy, both internationally and domestically, will dwindle rapidly. Support for the strike now being planned is dwindling the longer Clinton holds off.

Clinton should not tip his hand, but his military and diplomatic planners must be ready with a whole series of further steps if the air strikes fail to pound reason into Saddam.

The president gave a convincing rationale for a military strike, but the success of his policy with regard to Iraq may lie in how America reacts to a military strike's failure.