Sunday, February 22, 1998

Moderates fear shifts in state GOP

By Steve Ray

Moderate Republicans fear they are losing their grip on the Texas GOP and they may have good cause for concern.

The reason is the changing face of Texas voters who for nine of the past 10 years have been almost evenly divided between those who identify themselves as Democrats, Republicans and Independents.

A decade ago, Republicans knew that to become the state's majority party they would have to sway those Independents to join their ranks.

Now some moderates say their success could also be the party's downfall.

The reason? Independents who hopped on board with Texas Republicans were a combination of right-wing believers whose anti-abortion and anti-gay rights beliefs overshadowed the moderates' emphasis on sound fiscal policy.

Those independents were probably much different than those who still identify themselves in the same category today.

According to the latest Scripps Howard Texas Poll, today's Independents are a mixed lot that analysts believe could go to either political party.

They are overwhelmingly Anglo, mostly men and about half of them are between the ages of 30 and 49.

The largest number -- 23 percent -- make more than $60,000 a year compared with 10 percent who earn less than $10,000. Thirty-seven percent say they are conservative, 32 percent moderate and 25 percent liberal.

The fact that Republicans and Democrats are almost evenly divided, means that no one can win in Texas without support from those who still consider themselves Independent voters.

Attracting the third of Independents who consider themselves moderates can decide a general election.

Republican moderates worry that the rigid beliefs of the social conservatives are not what mainstream Texans want.

They also fear that in the March GOP primary -- where turnouts are expected to be between 500,000 and 700,000 -- the religious right will hold a greater sway in the results than they would in a general election.

That, they say, is bad news for the state GOP.

The Texas Poll shows that the number of Texans who identify themselves as Independents peaked in 1987 when 38 percent fit that category.

During that same year, 25 percent of Texans said they were Republicans and 31 percent said they were Democrats.

Ten years later, the percentage of Democrats remained consistent but the number of Independents had dropped by 13 percentage points and Republicans had gained eight points.

While those identifying themselves as Republicans and Democrats were almost even, the state GOP had taken the lead.

Thirty-three percent of Texans said they were Republicans, 28 percent Democrat, 25 percent Independent and 8 percent identified with other political parties.

Now that's a lot of numbers. But what it means is this. Republicans were successful in persuading Independents to come into the fold.

But now those newcomers like the power they've developed -- and they have engineered a takeover of the Texas GOP that is a textbook example of how to play the political game.

After taking over the party organization, social conservatives have concentrated on developing a cadre of believers that get out and vote.

And if some Republican blood is spilled along the way, many feel that is just part of the transition to taking complete control of the party.

Some social conservatives say this year it is more important for them to show their strength in the primary by electing supporters than to choose a Republican who has a better chance of winning the general election.

At least two of their leaders -- former state party chairman Tom Pauken and former congressman Steve Stockman -- are running for statewide office. And normally moderate Republicans are trying to sound a whole lot more conservative to appeal to the right-wing crowd.

Why is all that important? The March primary election could help determine how long the Republicans can remain the majority party.

Turnout in primary elections in notoriously low. In runoff elections it is even smaller.

Moderates fear that Pauken will get in a runoff with one of two more moderate Republicans in the attorney general's race. If social conservatives vote in large numbers in the runoff, Pauken is likely to win.

And Stockman, who is a favorite of the religious right, is running against a much better financed moderate in Tony Garza, the former secretary of state.

The races are considered a battle for the soul of the party.

Some of that is just political posturing. Pauken is about as conservative as they come. But he has a reputation for being able to listen to all sides. And he is a mix of a fiscal and social conservative and is far from being a right-wing looney. He is politically savvy and street smart.

If Pauken and Stockman win, social conservatives will finally have flexed their muscles on a statewide level. Their only previous successes have been in races for the State Board of Education.

Some moderates warn that if Pauken and Stockman win, mainstream Republicans will defect to the Democratic side or simply go fishing.

That could prove devastating to GOP hopes to prove they are the state's majority party.

Steve Ray is chief of the Scripps Howard Austin Bureau.