Wednesday, January 21, 1998

What to do with Saddam Hussein?

By GOODWIN COOKE / Knight-Ridder/Tribune News Service

What is to be done about Saddam Hussein? A ferocious and merciless tyrant in Iraq, he has invaded his neighbors Iran and Kuwait, launched Scud missiles against Israel, and now seems bent on making weapons of mass destruction, nuclear, chemical and even biological.

Indeed, Iraq is the only state to have used poison gas in recent years, against Iran and its own Kurdish minority, and the thought of these weapons under Saddam's control is scary, to say the least. Some usually prudent observers suggest the only way to deal with him is a cruise missile or some kind of hit squad -- rub the rascal out.

Appealing though that may be, it doesn't make much sense. Those around Saddam are members of his family, and his successor could conceivably be worse than him. Then we might knock him off, and his successor, until we get somebody we like; and then we would have to protect him -- basically leaving us to govern Iraq. That is not a position we want to be in.

The Saddam problem

Americans are problem solvers, engineers, lawyers, managers, the best in the world. Saddam is a problem: Solve it. But international affairs, particularly in the Middle East, are not a series of isolated problems, but a network of issues, and action on one affects the others. Saddam's ambitions must be seen in context.

However dreadful he is, he is not a mad fanatic, eager for martyrdom, ready to immolate himself for some Arab or Iraqi cause. He has shown a well-developed instinct for self-preservation, surrounding himself with hostages so an attack will create carnage among noncombatants, women and children. He moves frequently and secretly among his several palaces.

This suggests he would be unlikely to use these weapons against a power capable of devastating retaliation, like the United States or Israel, which is generally believed to have an extensive nuclear arsenal.

The Scud attacks during the Gulf War came when the United States was pressing Israel strongly not to retaliate. That won't happen again, and a major attack on Israel would surely be the end of Saddam.

‘Arab World' leader

He evidently hopes personally to be the leader of the "Arab World," a role to which Nasser of Egypt aspired in the 1960s. From civilization's origins, Iraq, under Assyria and Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon, was a rival of Egypt under the pharaohs. Saddam's fierce rhetoric about Israel, and his refusal to accept Americans, Israel's supporters, on U.N. inspection teams, are designed to win Arab support.

The invasion of Kuwait, another Arab state, was not well received by Arabs, but defiance of the United States seems to be winning him admirers. Unsuccessful attempts to kill him might well advance his ambitions.

His target for these weapons would more likely be Iran, with which Iraq fought a bitter and bloody 10-year war in an attempt to get a deep water port on the Persian Gulf. Iranians are Persians, not Arabs, of a different language, ethnicity and history. Indeed it was the Medes (today's Kurds) and Persians who overthrew Nebuchadnezzar's successor and freed the Israelites from their captivity in Babylon.

This concern is surely part of the explanation for the overtures made to the United States by Iran's President Khatami. Khatami has problems too, particularly the conservative theocrats who reject accommodation with America, "the Great Satan." But it would be in our interest to respond positively and warmly, building toward a balance of power of which Saddam would have to be wary.

Doors to China

Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon did much the same in the opening to China in the '70s, which led in turn to a dramatic change in Soviet behavior and the signature of several important arms-control agreements. Saddam may be less predictable than Brezhnev; but he is a realist, and power is the currency of realism. A developing relationship between the United States and Iran could not but have an impact.

Nixon's rapprochement with China was eased by sending a table-tennis team to get beaten by the Chinese world champions -- and Khatami has expressed interest in cultural exchanges. Do they play ping-pong in Iran?

Godwin Cooke is professor of international relations in Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs and former U.S. ambassador to the Central African Republic. Readers may write to him at: 225 Eggers Hall, Syracuse University, Syracuse, N.Y. 13244.