Sunday, July 26, 1998

Analysis of statistics shows gun owners less likely to be arrested than others

By Eric Wallace / Guest Columnist

I read with interest the AP story on the front-page of the July 11 edition of the Abilene Reporter-News, "More than 1,600 concealed gun carriers arrested." I would like to compare the numbers reported in that story with the arrests reported on the FBI Uniform Crime Report for 1995 (the latest year for which a final report is available on the FBI's web site, http://www.fbi.gov).

First, let's set the time frame. The numbers in the article span a period of 30 months. They start on January 1, 1996, and run through June 1998. Let's take those numbers down to a yearly level so we can compare them to the FBI's statistics.

Simple math gives the annual arrest rate for Texas Concealed Handgun License holders - 1667 total arrests divided by 2.5 years equals 667 arrests per year. The same formula gives us 161 felony arrests per year and 5.6 (rounded to 6) arrests for murder among Texas CHL holders.

The other numbers we need to do a comparison are the total number of Texas CHL holders, which the article reports as 184,262, and the total population of the United States. The U.S. Census bureau web page (http://www.census.gov) reports 270 million people living in America.

The percent of Texas CHL holders arrested per year (667 of 184262 CHL holders equals 0.0036188), multiplied by the 270 million people living in the United States, would be more than 977,000 total arrests per year.

Unfortunately, the FBI lists the actual number of people arrested for crimes, excluding traffic violations, at 15.1 million. That is an arrest rate in the populace at large over 15 times higher than the arrest rate of Texas CHL holders.

Multiplying the Texas CHL felony arrest rate (.000873) times 270 million, we get an arrest count per year of 235,621. FBI statistics show felony arrests of 1.8 million or 7.6 times more felony arrests in the populace at large as in Texas CHL holders

Let's look at the murder statistics. Because we are looking at arrest rates, we will include the murder charges against three CHL holders that, according to the article, have already been dismissed. The extrapolated murder rate of 8,206 murders per year is drastically overshadowed by the actual FBI statistics of 21,597 murders in 1995, a good year that saw a 7 percent drop in murders over 1994 numbers.

So, Texas CHL holders are more than 15 times less likely to be arrested, over 7 percent less likely to be arrested for a felony, and 2.6 times less likely to be arrested for murder than the population as a whole. Those statistics hold true across all 31 states that now issue concealed handgun licenses.

The FBI's 1996 Uniform Crime Report shows that in states where the laws respect the citizen's right to carry firearms for self-defense, the total violent crime rate is 13 percent lower, homicide is 3 percent lower, robbery is 26 percent lower, and aggravated assault is 7 percent lower.

In Florida, whose carry law went into effect in 1987 and a state that has kept detailed records about CHL holders, less than two tenths of 1 percent (0.02) of those licensed have had their licenses revoked because of firearm-related crimes.

This FBI report also states, "Data collected on weapons used in connection with murder, robbery, and aggravated assault showed that personal weapons (hands, fists, feet, etc.) were used in 31 percent of the offenses and that firearms were used in 30 percent."

The FBI also reports 32 percent of the murders were committed with something other than a firearm.

America does not have a problem with firearms. America has a problem with criminals. There are over 20,000 federal, state and local gun control laws on the books. If criminals were prosecuted, convicted and sentenced based on existing gun laws, we would be a "one strike and you're out" nation.

Three strikes are valid for baseball or bowling. It is utterly ludicrous for crime.

Would that the populace at large were as criminally minded as concealed handgun license holders. Put these facts in your single-shot, muzzle loader and see if it misfires.

Eric Wallace is an Abilene gun owner.