Monday, August 31, 1998

Cowboys should make the playoffs this year

By Candy Reagan

Based on what I've seen of the Dallas Cowboys thus far, I'm predicting they win it all this season.

In fact, Thursday night's preseason game between the Cowboys and Jaguars was quite possibly a preview of the Super Bowl, only next time, the outcome will be different.

Whaaaat? You think I'm crazy? Well, let me insert a disclaimer right here: This is a biased opinion.

Of course, I pick the Cowboys. I've made no secret of the fact that I'm a huge Cowboys fan. I always pick the Cowboys. But here's why I think the Cowboys really will have a good season this year:

1. The Cowboys are better than they were last year -- much better. Let me count the ways. Daryl Johnston's back. Chris Warren replaces Sherman Williams as Emmitt's back up. That's a huge difference. Leon Lett is back. Greg Ellis and Kavika Pittman will be better than an injured Tony Tolbert and the unimpressionable Shante Carver. Fred Strickland appears back to his old form and has something to prove. Nate Newton is in shape, and Everett McIver, while not the best offensive lineman in free agency, should be better than the old and injured Mark Tuinei. And for the first time in several years, the Cowboys have depth at offensive line with Flozell Adams.

2. Plus they have an easier schedule. Last year the Cowboys had the most difficult schedule in the league. This year they don't. That alone will add a game or two to their record.

3. And the NFC East stinks. True, each team is better than they were last year, but that's not saying much. The only reason New York won the title last year is because no one else wanted it. Everyone in the division was pathetic. This year they upgrade to mediocre.

New York has no shot at this title again. They have a much tougher schedule (Green Bay,San Francisco, Denver and Kansas City within a tough six-game stretch), no premiere running back, an unproven quarterback, and no real standout receiver. And while their defense was great last year, it was playing mostly against pathetic NFC East offenses. (The Giants were 3-5 in non-division games and the only non-division victories were against New Orleans, Detroit and Cincinnati.)

Washington appears to have the best chance of taking the division from Dallas. The Redskins added Dana Stubblefield and Dan Wilkinson, and these two guys will be everything the Redskins hoped they would be. The Redskins will have a tough defense. They should make the playoffs and may win the division.

But Gus Frerotte, Terry Allen and Michael Westbrook are not the guys to lead a team to the Super Bowl. And they can't hold a candle to the Cowboys "Big Three."

Much has also been made of Arizona's upgrades. Yes, their defense should be better, and they appear to finally have a top-notch quarterback. But Arizona's offensive line is still a problem, and running will be difficult.

Philadelphia should settle to the bottom of the division without Ricky Watters.

That leaves the Cowboys to either win the division, or at the very least, win enough division games to make the playoffs.

4. This year, the Cowboys will have good coaching. Barry Switzer was not as bad as people made him out to be, but he certainly didn't give the Cowboys any advantage. Chan Gailey will.

Plus, Gailey's offensive schemes will maximize the changing -- and aging -- abilities of Dallas' superstars.

Dave Campo has amazed me repeatedly with what he's done with the Dallas defense, and no longer am I doubting him. This defense was ranked second last year, and look at all the improvements I mentioned above. It should be solid.

All that said, the Cowboys have depth problems and just one injury in the wrong place could totally change the complexion of the team. The health of four people is particularly crucial: Troy Aikman, Deion Sanders, Leon Lett and Michael Irvin. The drop in quality between these four guys and their backups is so significant that it changes the whole nature of the team. You could make an argument to add Larry Allen, Darren Woodson and Emmitt Smith to that group, but they have a little bit better backups.

So, what about the winless preseason? Well I attribute that to two things: Sanders and Lett were mostly missing from the defense, and the Dallas offense is learning a new system.

Otherwise, I think the slow start is good. With all the changes, fans were expecting some kind of miraculous turn around. The preseason brought those fans back to reality.

The Cowboys will turn around, but it won't be miraculous. It will take hard work, and it will be gradual. Frankly, I'd prefer a slow start and gradual improvement after last year's hot start followed by a crash.

The Cowboys may have a rough first month, but they will improve as the season unfolds. Look to games against Minnesota and Carolina to be critical to the playoff picture down the road.

OK, I know. This is a team that went 6-10 last year. Perhaps it was the hopeful fan in me that predicted a Super Bowl appearance. But the Cowboys will make the playoffs, and if they get there with the aforementioned critical four athletes healthy, then anything can happen.

Candy Reagan, a local free-lance writer and avid sports fan, writes a weekly sports column commenting on sports happenings. You may contact her by e-mail at reagan@camalott.com.