Sunday, October 26, 1997

Exports of cotton are brisk for '97-'98 marketing year

By J.T. SMITH Farm Editor

While the current Texas cotton crop is pegged at 5.4 million bales, 24 percent greater than the state's 1996 crop, the U.S. cotton crop actually is projected to be a bit smaller.

The U.S. Upland cotton crop is estimated at 17.9 million bales, down 3 percent from last year's national crop.

That gives a ray of hope that the big Texas crop won't depress the market. (Texans have so often been accused of producing huge cotton crops that glut the market).

What's more, the Texas cotton may be needed to meet export demand if the current trend continues.

Export sales of U.S. cotton for the 1997-98 marketing year remain considerably ahead of last year's pace. As of October, total export sales already were 4.2 million bales, compared with 2.8 million bales at the same point last year.

Among those sales commitments, actual shipments of cotton also have increased sharply, reports the National Cotton Council. Shipments at this time have reached 788,000 bales. At the same point last year, shipments amounted to 476,000 bales.

USDA's estimate of U.S. cotton exports for the entire 1997-98 season stands at 6.9 million bales.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Commerce recently put the seasonally- adjusted annual rate of domestic consumption of cotton at 11.5 million bales.

If so, the export projection and U.S. mill use estimate would together amount to a total offtake of 18.4 million bales of cotton. That would be be bigger than the current U.S. crop projection and likely would gobble up at least a dab of old-crop cotton stored in warehouses.

U.S. ending stocks on hand next August are expected to be about 4 million bales.