Sunday, September 8, 1996

Democrats Sense Presidential Opportunity in Texas

By MELISSA WILLIAMS
Associated Press

DALLAS - Rank-and-file Texas Democrats are smelling victory in this year's presidential race - or at least a much better showing than in the past 16 years.

"I think he has a fair chance," 71-year-old Dorothy Box of Dallas said of President Clinton at a Friday fund-raiser headlined by his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton. "I didn't think so earlier, but I do now."

A Houston Chronicle/Dallas Morning News Poll, published in Sunday's early editions, found the presidential race in Texas in a dead heat, with Republican nominee Bob Dole favored by 44 percent of registered voters in Texas, compared with 41 percent for Clinton. It has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

The survey of 1,007 voters, conducted Sept. 2-5 as the president ordered missile attacks against Iraq, was done by Blum & Weprin Associates of New York. It found 4 percent ready to vote for Reform Party nominee Ross Perot.

A poll in August had indicated that Clinton had pulled even with Dole in Texas, erasing since January a six-point gap.

"We all believe there's a chance, based on the issues, based upon what people are saying to me," said U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, a Dallas Democrat.

Texas has a popular Republican governor, George W. Bush, as well as two Republican senators, Phil Gramm and Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Although the state House and state Senate both have Democratic majorities, the controlling factor is not party affiliation but ideology, said Jerry Polinard, a professor of political science at the University of Texas-Pan American who studies elections in Texas.

"At the state level, conservatives beat liberals regardless of the party," Polinard said.

If Clinton carries Texas in 1996, that will continue an erosion of GOP strength in Texas presidential elections that began in 1992.

In 1988, George Bush received 56.3 percent of the 5.3 million votes Texans cast in the race with Democrat Michael Dukakis.

Bush saw his advantage wane in 1992 as he failed to garner a majority in the three-way race with Clinton and billionaire Ross Perot. Bush polled 40.7 percent of 6.1 million votes cast in Texas, with Clinton taking 37.2 percent and Perot 22 percent.

That election made Clinton the first Democrat this century to win the election without carrying Texas, Polinard said.

Although winning Texas this year will be an "uphill battle" for Clinton, Polinard said, the president's chances are better than in 1992 because of three factors: a generally strong economy; Mesquite schoolteacher Victor Morales' challenge to Gramm, which could bring out more Hispanic voters, who tend to vote Democratic; and "the Ross Perot factor. If he stays in the race, he'll probably draw disproportionately from the Republicans," Polinard said.

Ricardo Medrano, 55, a union organizer in Dallas, said he sees Clinton's momentum growing.
"I think we're underestimating Texans and how they're going to vote," said Medrano. "When you start seeing a lot of those bumper stickers, that tells you something. That shows commitment."

Medrano said Clinton will capture votes from newly registered voters who used to be legal or illegal immigrants. They fear more changes like the welfare reform bill that cut benefits to legal immigrants, Medrano said.

Clinton is expected to visit Texas later this month, which could force Dole to spend time and energy defending a state he thought he had wrapped up.

State GOP Chairman Tom Pauken conceded that the race is tighter than he would like.
"I know it's close, but I do think Dole's ahead in Texas among likely voters," he said. "I just got back from East Texas, which is traditionally strong Democratic territory. People over there seem to think Bob Dole's doing well."

Perot's siphoning away of Republican voters will be far less marked this year than in 1992, Pauken predicted.

"I would hope that Bob Dole would be able to carry Texas by 5 percent or more," he added. "Clearly, if we lose Texas, then Bill Clinton has been re-elected as president of the United States."
Even some loyal Democrats predict a Dole victory in Texas this fall.

"It doesn't look good" for Clinton, said Nancy Schaadt, 33, a Dallas freelance writer wearing a Hillary Rodham Clinton Fan Club button at a Friday airport rally. "I don't think this is a state he'll win."