Monday, July 29, 1996

Predicted demographic picture for Texas in 2030 includes more poor, unskilled

By Associated Press

DALLAS (AP) - Barring fundamental changes, Texas will be overrun by poverty and have millions more minimally skilled workers and people on welfare by the year 2030, according to a new study of demographic trends.

The study, dubbed "Texas Challenged," was prepared for the Legislature by the Texas State Data Center at Texas A&M University. It's the most comprehensive look ever at the effects of demographic change in Texas.

A copy of the study was obtained by The Dallas Morning News, which published the results in Sunday editions.

Experts say the report reflects troubling trends because Texas isn't doing enough to increase opportunities for minorities even though they will play a dominant role in the state's future over the coming decades.

As a result, Texas in the year 2030 could be a dismal place, with a poorly educated and unskilled workforce that will make the state uncompetitive in an increasingly global marketplace.

"We have a time bomb here," University of North Texas economist Bernard Weinstein told the newspaper.

"If the up-and-coming workforce does not have the requisite skills or language ability, we are looking at a lost generation. They are going to either put into the system or draw on the system."

According to the study, Texas' population will grow nearly 80 percent - to 33.8 million - over the next 34 years. Hispanics will be responsible for nearly all that growth, comprising 46 percent of the state's population, up from about 29 percent now.

The report also finds that education costs will increase sharply, along with welfare enrollment and the prison population. Average wages, meanwhile, will be down.

Steve Murdock, director of the data center, said the results mean Texas must do something to remove the barriers now facing minorities.

"The future of Texas is tied to the future of its minority population. How well they do is how well the state will do," he said.

Murdock stressed that his 1,000-page study, which took three years to compile, is intended to present a possible future for Texas - not a forecast - if no changes are made and if demographic trends remain constant.

The report does not take into account possible changes in the economy, federal laws or funding, water supply or technology. Any of those factors could alter population patterns.

Murdock said that's the state's foremost challenge.

"If we don't want a society that is less-educated, poorer and increasingly violent, we're going to have to identify things to invest in in the future of Texas right now," he said.

"We must recognize that these investments will be larger and more long-term than we would prefer them to be. But it will be less than the cost of not investing."

Among the recommended changes are early childhood enrichment programs, more effective education, specialized literacy and language training for immigrants and workforce training for higher-skilled, high-tech jobs.

State Comptroller John Sharp agreed that serious problems could be ahead for Texas if current trends continue.

"We have a massive nightmare situation coming Texas' way if we fail to prepare the workforce," Sharp said.

The study also shows what could happen if the socioeconomic gap between whites and minorities were closed between now and 2030.

Murdock said college attendance would more than double over projections, poverty would drop from a projected increase of 165 percent to 44 percent and the prison population would drop by 20 percent from current levels.

For the moment, however, Murdock said the prospects are bleak.

Dallas lawyer Adelfa Callejo, an Hispanic activist, was blunt about the implications.

"We have 22 Spanish republics south of Dallas," Callejo said. "In light of NAFTA, we (Hispanics) are the hope of controlling those markets, which should be ours naturally.

"But they can only be our markets if we have an educated Hispanic workforce. We must take some very drastic measures, because the needs of the Hispanic child are not being met and they are not being planned for."