Presidential race neck and nck in Texas

By Harte-Hanks

It wasn't supposed to happen, but with just days left before the election, President Bill Clinton and Republican challenger Bob Dole are neck-and-neck in the Texas Presidential race.

That could be good news for Democratic congressional candidates locked in tough election battles with Republicans.

Analysts say even a close race by Clinton could add 1 or 2 percentage points to their totals in Texas.

That doesn't mean that Democrats will pick up a lot of congressional seats in the state, but it means they may hold on to what they already have - or even add one or two to their margin.

"There will be a lot of ticket splitting in Texas," said Alan Saxe, a University of Texas-Arlington government professor who specializes in Texas politics. "But I think Republicans and Democrats are coming to understand that the race for president is just about over and the real battle is for Congress."

Even some Republicans around the country had given up on Dole. Some GOP congressional campaigns are preparing new campaign ads featuring a blank check made out to President Clinton.

In the ads, they ask voters not to give Clinton a blank check by also giving him a Democratic Congress. It shows they have already given up on Dole's chances of winning the presidential contest.

Democrats say the ads won't work because voters are tired of the gridlock Democrats blame on the GOP, especially after congressional Republicans shut down the government rather than compromise on important issues.

"It's going to help the Democrats quite a bit with the race being this close in Texas," said George Edwards, Texas A&M's director of the Center for Presidential Studies. "More people will pull the lever for Democrats at the top of the ticket, and even 1 or 2 percent difference in House races could determine who wins in Texas."

In normal presidential years, that just wouldn't happen. Texans haven't gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976. And it hasn't strongly affected congressional races.

But this year, things aren't all that bad. The economy is good and most polls indicate that's a top issue to voters.

And who do Texas voters trust more with the economy? Bill Clinton, according to the latest Harte-Hanks Texas Poll.

The decision on who will win Texas in presidential and congressional races may hinge on voters who don't identify with either party.

Politically independent Texans are having a rough time making up their mind who to vote for in the presidential race.

Many of them say they don't like any of the choices, and all the presidential candidates ought to feel lucky that "none of the above" doesn't appear on the Texas ballot.

The latest Texas Poll shows 10 percent of Texans are still undecided on which presidential candidate to vote for on Nov. 5.

Democrats and Republicans seem to have made up their mind. Only 5 percent of the folks who identified themselves as Republicans said they weren't sure who to vote for. Only 6 percent of those who said they were Democrats didn't know.

But 11 percent of independent voters - who made up about a fourth of those polled - are still undecided. They are also the voters more likely to split their votes in down-ballot races.

They are also the same voters who are a little uncomfortable with character issues surrounding Clinton and capability issues with Dole.

Dole's problems were compounded when he sent his campaign manager to Texas to try to convince Perot to drop out of the race and endorse Dole. Many analysts portrayed that move as a desperate tactic by Dole.

As more attention turns to congressional campaigns during the final days leading up to Nov. 5, voters will have to answer at least one tough question: Will those they elect be able to overcome partisanship and work for the best interest of the average citizen?

How they answer that question, should determine how they vote in both the presidential and congressional races.