Friday, September 20, 1996

Texas Poll Shows Morales Behind By STEVE RAY
Harte-Hanks Texas Poll Syndicate

Fifty percent of likely Texas voters would vote for Republican U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm compared with 34 percent for Democratic challenger Victor Morales, according to The Harte-Hanks Texas Poll.

Both candidates in the U.S. Senate race enjoy high favorable ratings and almost one in three Texans say they don't know the most important issue in deciding how they will cast their vote.

Analysts say the poll - which shows little movement for either candidate since June - could indicate Texans haven't paid much attention to the race. Fifteen percent are still undecided.

Thirty percent don't know the most important issue in deciding who to support.

"Some people don't get revved up until closer to election time," said Janice May, a government professor at the University of Texas. "This may seem close to us because we follow politics. But it's still a little early for many people to decide."

But Texans know what they think about Gramm and Morales. Sixty-two percent said they had a favorable opinion of Gramm compared with 51 percent for Morales, a Mesquite schoolteacher.
Twenty-nine percent of Texans had an unfavorable opinion of Gramm, and 25 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Morales.

But Democrats said Gramm's money and advertising hasn't done him much good.

"This poll shows that the hundreds of thousands of dollars Sen. Gramm has spent on negative ads in the last several weeks have done absolutely nothing," said Morales Campaign Coordinator Greg Weiner. "There has not been this much money wasted in politics since Phil Gramm ran for president and spent $30 million to come in second in Louisiana and fifth in Iowa."

Gramm's campaign officials said they have been running radio ads since early summer and began television ads early this month, when The Texas Poll was surveying likely voters.

"Most people don't really know Phil Gramm," May said. "But in Texas the Republican Party label and the conservative label attracts voters. He has had an enormous war chest of campaign contributions and he can saturate the market. ... If you don't have the money you can't hit all the markets in Texas."

And Gramm has plenty more money to spend on the campaign. As of June 30, the Gramm campaign had $3.6 million on hand, campaign press secretary Julie Hillrichs said.

That dwarfs Morales' campaign coffers, which had $120,000 at the end of the same reporting period. The Morales campaign has not spent money on television, radio or newspaper advertising - unless it was paid for by individual supporters, Weiner said.

But Republicans say The Texas Poll results indicated an end to Morales' dreams.

"We've now seen three consecutive statewide polls that show Phil Gramm is ahead by double digits statewide," Hillrichs said. "We've increased our lead since the last Texas Poll and lead in every region of the state but one. That has to be devastating for Mr. Morales."

In June, the poll showed a 47-33 margin. With a three percentage point margin of error in the poll, the changes are insignificant, analysts said.

"What you look for in a poll is movement, who has momentum in their direction," Weiner said. "This tells me Phil Gramm is absolutely stagnant. If he can't get a majority of Texans to say they will vote for him with seven weeks left, he's in big trouble."

Gramm is leading in all parts of the state except for Central Texas where he is tied with Morales. He also leads by a wide margin - 59 to 29 - among Anglo voters. Morales has a wide margin of support from minorities.

"This is clearly another hard blow to the Morales campaign as Texas voters focus on issues like the balanced budget, same-sex marriage and crime," said Gramm spokeswoman Hillrichs. "They don't like what Victor Morales says, but they do like what Phil Gramm is."

The poll shows that Texans really don't know much about the issues in the U.S. Senate race.

Thirty percent said they didn't know what the most important issue was in deciding which candidate to support for the U.S. Senate. Eighteen percent listed character or the quality of the candidate and 11 percent said the economy and deficit.

"There is no hot button issue driving this race," Buchanan said. "These results just reinforce the point that people are making generic decisions about what will help Texas most overall. May and Buchanan said it would be hard for Morales to overcome Gramm's lead.

"His problem is that the Mr. Smith goes to Washington hype has worn off," Buchanan said. "The message out there is that this guy has got too much to learn to supplant a senator with the kind of clout Gramm has in Washington. "Now to win, he's got to put all his eggs in the get-out-the-vote basket. He has to press for debates, try to get some money for ads and sponsor a huge voter turnout effort. To win, there would have to be a huge Hispanic turnout. That's his only hope at this point."

May said she doesn't see anything that would put Morales over the top but said if Clinton carries Texas it could also benefit Democrats down the ballot.

The Texas Poll showed Clinton and Republican candidate Bob Dole in a dead heat, each with 41 percent support.

May said it would almost take a miracle for Morales to win, but it has happened before.

"He would have to hammer away (at Gramm's negatives) on statewide TV. A media blitz could change the ratings." May said. "But he's a long shot. The miracle could be that he beat (former Congressmen) John Bryant and Jim Chapmen in the primaries. Still, I would hesitate to say it's over. Lots of things could happen."

The poll was conducted Sept. 3-13 for Harte-Hanks Communications Inc. by the Office of Survey Research of the University of Texas. It surveyed 1,001 adult Texans and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.