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Sunday, February 23, 1997

Majority of Texans support Bush's property tax cut plan

By STEVE RAY

Harte-Hanks Texas Poll Syndicate

Copyright Harte-Hanks Communications Inc.

Six in every 10 Texans support a property tax cut plan being pushed by Gov. George W. Bush, according to the Harte-Hanks Texas Poll.

But about half of Texans - including 53 percent of property owners - say their local property taxes are fair. And 59 percent of Texans would be willing to pay higher sales taxes if it reduced property taxes.

Analysts say public support of the governor's plan stems more from Bush's high popularity than an understanding of his proposals.

Bush has the highest favorability rating of Texas governors in at least 12 years. Sixty-nine percent of Texans approve of the job he is doing, 25 percent disapprove and 6 percent don't know.

"The details of this plan are not known by the public," said Bill Miller, an Austin-based political consultant who works for both Democrats and Republicans. "They like the governor. He says it's a good idea. So they say it's a good idea."

The Republican governor has toured the state in recent weeks touting his plan as a way to reduce rising property taxes.

He has proposed lowering local property taxes by nearly $3 billion a year and paying for it with higher sales taxes, a new business tax and $1 billion from budget savings.

His efforts could be paying off.

Sixty-five percent of Texas property owners said they supported his plan compared with 26 percent who opposed it. And 59 percent of Texas said they would be willing to pay higher sales taxes if it reduced their property taxes.

Bush said the poll reflects what he is hearing from working people across Texas in his town hall meetings.

"There appears to be strong support of doing something about property tax relief," Bush said. "I hope that the message that exists outside the Capital comes here to Austin and people make the case to their elected officials."

Many of those elected officials are scrutinizing Bush's plan, which is coming under increased criticism by special interest groups and state lawmakers.

The most recent attack on the proposal came last week from the Legislative Budget Board, the analysts that provide official financial impact studies for state budget writers.

That report concluded that Texas taxpayers would see overall taxes fall by an average of 2.9 percent and that the average homeowner's property taxes would fall about 25 percent. Those results are smaller than the governor's office had projected.

It also stated that two-thirds of the new business activity tax would be passed on to consumers through higher retail prices, lower wages and lower investment returns.

And it forecast that Bush's plan would make poor Texans pay a larger proportion of their income in taxes.

"Obviously the public has not had an opportunity to review the details of his plan," said state Rep. Paul Sadler, D-Henderson, who heads a special House committee scrutinizing the proposal. "The devil is in the details and it takes a lot of study and a lot of effort."

Bush said the legislative analysis was based on flawed assumptions.

"I'm not surprised that people are setting up all kinds of smoke screens and ... trying to frighten people," he said. "But the most frightening thing is an increased property tax in our state."

The Texas Poll also showed:

- Support for Bush's proposals stretch across all ethnic, income, geographical and gender lines.

- Among the 677 property owners surveyed, 53 percent thought their property taxes were fair compared with 43 percent who thought they were unfair.

Bush said that could easily change.

"The 53 percent who don't think their taxes are too high today will think so if we don't do something about it in short order," Bush said. "As a result of reappraisals and tremendous pressure caused by the number of new children coming into school districts, property taxes will continue to go up. So the number who think their property taxes are fair could be significantly less than that in a year's time if the state doesn't act."

- Forty-seven percent of Texans say businesses were paying their fair share of state taxes compared with 35 percent who disagreed. That's down from 1983 when 60 percent of Texans said businesses were paying their fair share of taxes.

"All this talk about taxes has raised questions in people's minds," said Miller, who represents retailers interested in the property tax debate. "But they still don't have enough information. I expect a drop off in support. Bush is going around saying some people aren't paying their share of taxes. It's a blanket indictment of Texas business and I don't think that's healthy. It's creating animosity between the working class and the business class."

- Texans weren't sure where the state should get the money to pay for the public school system if the $10 billion property tax system was reduced.

Twenty-seven percent supported increasing the sales tax, 21 percent didn't know and 19 percent said some other source.

Eleven percent of Texans thought it should come from a tax on business profits and six percent thought it should come on a tax on business income.

Another 6 percent thought schools should be paid for with a state income tax and 5 percent each supported an increase in the business franchise tax and a value-added tax.

Bush conceded his plan was complex but said he expected support to grow as people began to understand the various elements of his proposals.

"People are very interested in the details," Bush said, "and the whys and wherefores of the plan. They want to understand the general philosophy behind what I am attempting to do."

That philosophy, he said, includes finding ways to make sure Texans get a substantial property tax cut; keeping property taxes low; funding schools in a fair way; and making sure that business taxes are flat and fair.

"All those elements create a certain degree of complexity," Bush said. "But people are listening and paying attention. Reaction to my speeches has been very positive."

But positive reaction from the public has been muted by criticism from some economists and political analysts.

"This whole deal is premised on a revolution out there," Miller said, "But over half of Texans think their property taxes are fair. Those numbers are not the seeds of a revolution."

Bruce Buchanan, University of Texas government professor, said other analysts are also questioning where Bush is getting his sense of urgency on the property tax issue. He believes the governor is trying to create his own issue to exercise his leadership.

"He wants to do something with his political power," Buchanan said. "He has the lesson of his father's experience. President Bush did not use his huge Gulf War popularity to his advantage and ultimately lost the election. This whole property tax issue could be because of the governor's fear of not generating a record of achievement sufficient enough to get him re-elected."

And, Ray Perryman, one of the state's most recognized economists, said Bush's plan simply rearranged pain by shifting the tax burden from one group to another.

"People are concerned about property taxes," said Perryman, who teaches at Southern Methodist University. "And, despite his plan's problems, the governor deserves credit for beginning the debate."

The poll, conducted Feb. 3-15, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Office of Survey Research of the University of Texas surveyed by telephone 998 adult Texans for Harte-Hanks Communications Inc. Send a Letter to the Editor about This Story | Start or Join A Discussion about This Story
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